Mounting fears about the potential impact on economic growth from the turbulence1 in global capital markets are prompting a dramatic reassessment of the outlook for world interest rates.
資本市場現在的動蕩已進入一個新的要緊階段，對美國和全球經濟的風險正在顯現，瑞銀集團經濟學家拉里?夏德威表示。假如貨幣政策準時做出回話，則可以防止一次全球性硬著陸。
ongoing tumult2 in capital markets has moved into a new and important phase where risks to US and world output are emerging, says Larry Hatheway, economist3 at UBS: Provided monetary4 policy responds in a timely manner, a global hard landing can be avoided.
夏德威稱，這種回話包含美國降息50個基點，英國、歐元區和日本降息25個基點，以平衡全球股市的調整及商業范圍資本本錢的上升（商業范圍資本本錢大概減緩投資支出）。
According to Mr Hatheway, that response involves cutting US interest rates by 50 basis points and reducing rates in the UK, eurozone and Japan by 25bp to offset5 the correction in global equity6 markets and the increased cosplayt of capital for the business sector7, which could slow investment spending.
然而，多數剖析人士覺得，在調整利率前，決策者將會觀望近期增加市場流動性舉措的成效。
However, most analysts8 feel policymakers will wait to gauge9 the effects of recent liquidity10 boosts before moving rates.
本周公布的各種數據，將初次有機會評估近期信貸市場和股市的走弱對買家信心的影響。
This weeks data releases will provide the first opportunity to assess how consumer sentiment has been affected11 by recent weakness in credit and equity markets.
預計美國8月份買家信心數據將降至105.0。7月份，該數據曾達到112.6，為6年以來的最高水平，部分緣由在于勞動力市場表現強勁。美國8月份買家信心數據將于今天公布。
US consumer confidence data for August, due tomorrow, are expected to decline to 105.0 after hitting a six-year high of 112.6 in July partly as a result of strength in the labour market.
油價的降低幫助提振了美國買家信心指數，但房產市場的持續走弱將繼續影響買家信心。
Lower petrol prices have helped US consumers but persistent12 weakness in the housing market will continue to weigh on sentiment.
美國6月份的買家支出僅上升了0.1%，將于本周五公布的7月份數據或有助于評估這是不是構成走弱趨勢的一部分。市場常見預測，7月份的買家支出將上升0.4%，從而使同比增幅從5月份的5.2%降至4.6%。
US consumer spending managed only a marginal rise of 0.1 per cent in June and Julys data, due on Friday, will help to evaluate if this is part of a softer trend. The consensus13 forecast is for a rise of 0.4 per cent which would slow the year-on-year growth rate from 5.2 per cent in May to 4.6 per cent in July.
美國買家支出前景走弱，乃是由于伴隨房產市場進一步降溫，資產增值抵押貸款市場出現了崩盤。買家從美國企業的回購行動中得到的現金有所降低，將會加強家庭預算重壓。
The softening14 in the outlook for US consumer spending is due to a collapse15 in mortgage equity withdrawal16 as the housing market slowdown has intensified17. The pressure on household budgets looks set to be compounded by a slowdown in the cash delivered to consumers from buy-backs by the US corporate18 sector.
在美聯儲喜愛的通脹衡量指標于本周五公布之后，美國是不是及早降息的前景或許會更為明朗一些。市場常見預測，核心個人消費支出同比增速將略有加快，從6月份的1.9%升至2%。
Prospects19 for an early cut in US interest rates could be clearer after the release of the Feds preferred measure of inflation, due on Friday. The consensus forecast is for year-on-year growth in the core PCE to accelerate slightly to 2 per cent from 1.9 per cent in June.
德國將于本周二公布8月份Ifo商業環境調查，預計8月份的數據將從7月的106.4降至105.2。預計將于本周五公布的歐元區8月份商業信心指數將從7月份的111.0降至110.2，繼續高于長期平均值100，與GDP約3%的增幅一致。
Germanys Ifo business climate survey for August, due on Tuesday, is expected to weaken from 106.4 in July to 105.2. Eurozone business confidence for August, due on Friday, is expected to fall from 111.0 in July to 110.2, remaining above its long-run average of 100, consistent with gross domestic product growth of about 3 per cent.